The October Surprises Waiting for Obama
A great article by Johann Hari appeared today on the Huffington Post. It highlights the area of American political exchange that has me most paranoid about the coming election. I was confident John Kerry would make a great president, especially when compared to GWB. But watching his campaign flub in every attempt to come back against the stupid, predictable, fear mongering manipulation of the media and the American public had me continually cringing and redfaced.
The October Surprises Waiting for Obama: “In five weeks, I hope to look back on this column with a wry chuckle at my paranoia. If the system works, Barack Obama will take the White House. The two issues John McCain is most closely associated with - invading Iraq, and deregulating the economy - have produced history-snatching catastrophes in the eyes of 80 percent of Americans. In the first debate, McCain revealed he had nothing to say except more of the same: aggression abroad, market fundamentalist ideology at home. So why am I worried?”
(Via HuffPo.)
He predicts several ways in which McCain could effectively attack any weaker candidate (though I do believe, based on the surprising and impressive ability of the Obama campaign to weather these attacks so far, Obama has a chance of pulling through this election cycle unscathed). The hideous missteps by McCain through the financial crisis and the hilarious failures of Sarah Palin to work the media in her favor show me this is no Karl Rove campaign. But still, it’s possible an effective October Surprise could throw Obama into a tailspin. I share Mr. Hari’s paranoia.
To summarize (although the full article is far more interesting than my post about it and you should read it!), here are his predictions:
First, the reappearance of Bin Laden. His plan to financially bleed America dry with perpetual war against an imaginary threat needs Neocons and Hawks to succeed. Telling Americans to vote for Obama (or else!) would likely work the same as it did in 2004 when a tape appeared just prior to the election.
And second, false concern over voter fraud. Make it clear, in the weeks prior to the election, that anyone suspected of showing up at the polls without the proper ID, the right address, or a name that marks them as more likely to vote Democratic, will be facing a confrontation. Whether that threat is backed up by any action or not won’t matter on election day as many of the voters toward whom this message is directed simply won’t show up and that’s the point.
I hope Obama can keep doing what he’s done for so long and repel these tactics with grace and directness. I’m tired of the politics of cynicism and manipulation and his style has given me hope that things can change while continuing to win against tactics that have served the Republicans so well for so long.
