It’s Too Early to Judge the Surge a Success
The deployment of additional forces to Baghdad as part of the escalation of the United States war effort in Iraq had hardly started when right-wing pundits and politicians were lauding what they said were positive signs. These were the same people who had admonished sceptics that early judgements about the success or failure of the surge would be unfair. Evidently, that rule only applied if the sectarian body count in Baghdad failed to diminish.
So we have been treated to dour Brit Hume and the yet-to-to-be-right-about-anything William Kristol extolling the surge’s virtues and telling us with almost giddy delight (well okay calling Hume “giddy” might be an exaggeration) that it’s already working. Even Senator John McCain, complete with body armour, circling Apache helicopters and about a hundred heavily armed American soldier-bodyguards, ventures into a Baghdad market not far from the Green Zone and proclaims that we’re just not getting the good news back home.
McCain at least should know better. It’s in the nature of military men that they will accentuate the positive but the colonels and generals running this operation need to take a deep breath. Too many times in the past we’ve heard premature pronouncements about progress in Iraq from the brass only to have reality bite them on the arse. In this case too, there are plenty of reasons to be cautious.
It was noticeable that the violence in Baghdad began to tamp down even before a significant increase of American and Iraqi soldiers had entered the city’s neighbourhoods. The militias and death squads were notable mostly for their absence. In fact, US troops have not encountered significant resistance to date. What this suggests is that the Shiite militias at least have pulled back in anticipation and to evaluate the effects of the surge. Whether it is to find ways to counteract it at the appropriate time or simply wait it out we don’t know.
The ever-adaptable Sunni insurgents on the other hand simply did what guerrillas do and moved elsewhere. (Did we actually think that they or the Shiite militias would take on the well trained, well-equipped American forces toe-to-toe?). Violence elsewhere in Iraq has not decreased; in fact in neighbouring provinces, such as Diyala, sectarian strife has actually escalated, with deadly suicide bombings such as the one in Tal Afar which claimed over 150 mostly Shiite lives. This was followed by a murderous rampage of vengeful Shiites including police who shot almost 50 Sunni civilians execution-style. Tal Afar has been repeatedly touted as an Iraqi success story by Bush.
The fact is that it is way too early to draw any conclusions at all about the counter-insurgency strategy of General David Petraeus. If we really intend to see this thing through it will be years not weeks or months before we find out if our efforts have been in vain or not. One predictable problem, however, is that a US force of 160,000 is simply insufficient to provide security everywhere and, as critics have pointed out, we are increasingly engaged in a game of wackamo. And could somebody please tell me why, if the Iraqi army is supposed to be taking the lead in this new security operation, twice as many American soldiers as Iraqis were killed in the month of March?
One final thought. The New York Times today informs us that American intelligence and counter-terrorism officials are surprised and dismayed by the resiliency of al-Qaida, and the speed with which its leadership has reconstituted. The pre-9/11 senior command which was eviscerated in the west’s counter-terrorism response has now been replaced. The breather that we allowed al-Qaida following the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan, and the organization’s ability to regroup in its Pakistan sanctuaries, has permitted it the opportunity to become reinvigorated and resurgent.
US experts now anticipate a new generation of savvy al-Qaida fighters more able and battle-hardened than their predecessors to emerge as the next generation leaders. And from which battleground will they have learned their craft? Iraq, where else? How nice of us to have provided such a superb training ground.
I agree with NJ Barnes that it is too early to deem the Surge a success.
But the fact that the US military had to basically lock down a Baghdad market in order for the American Congressional delegation to visit and show how “safe” Iraq has become would lead me to the conclusion that it may not be too early to deem the Surge a total failure.