When General David Petraeus reports to Congress and the American people in the fall he will, no doubt, put his best face on the short-term results of the increase of US combat forces in Iraq that has come to be known as the “surge”. He will fail.
He will report some successes. Yes, some neighbourhoods in Baghdad are a bit safer now and even some of the local markets can function almost normally; yes, sectarian torture and murders in the city are down from the unsustainable levels of late 2006. Yet even in Baghdad the mayhem continues, with car and suicide bombings, shootings and kidnappings; the dumped bodies, often mutilated, like so much refuse are still turning up in their dozens – every week.
Elsewhere, the violence has escalated particularly in Diyala Province northeast of Baghdad where US forces are struggling to counter the increasing insurgent attacks amid rising casualties. South of Baghdad 4000 US troops continue to search for two missing American soldiers who were snatched (dead or alive – we still don’t know for sure if the insurgents are simply yanking our chain by pretending they have live prisoners) in a daring raid that overwhelmed an inexplicably isolated patrol that should never have been so vulnerable. The other five Americans and an Iraqi interpreter in the group were killed.
The insurgents continue to kidnap and kill Iraqis at will, sometimes using a favourite tactic of setting up a phoney checkpoint to stop traffic and then dragging their victims out of their vehicles. Just today, it was reported that five British citizens were snatched in the very heart of Baghdad from the Iraqi Ministry of Finance by men wearing police uniforms and travelling in a convoy of nineteen vehicles, who then headed off in the direction of Sadr City. This incident, at least, may have a happier ending than most such events since the Shiite militias have less of a motive and track record of murdering westerners than their Sunni counterparts in Iraq.
The fact is that the chaos continues unabated, barely slowed by the US troop surge; even a force surge to nearly 200,000 troops is too little too late. The insurgents have not relinquished the initiative. They have repeatedly displayed their adaptability and tactical agility. They match snipers with their own snipers; they counter the mobility and armoured firepower of the Coalition forces with increasingly effective and deadly improvised explosive devices; they mount daring raids and strikes showing a sophistication in planning and execution that American commanders cannot help but respect. How long, one might ask, before they strike a truly devastating blow by attacking and overwhelming one of the larger platoon-sized US troop outposts?
The Iraqis continue to despise the foreign occupation in their midst yet fear the withdrawal of American and Coalition forces for the greater evil that may follow. Meanwhile, the Iraqi politicians who are being afforded more time to reach desperately needed compromises to unite their country - time bought mostly with American blood - continue, instead, to bicker and stonewall and plan their summer vacations. The majority Shiites (aided by an increasingly independent Kurdish minority seeking virtual autonomy) have the power and the oil wealth and they give little sign of a willingness to share either with the minority Sunnis who used to control both.
The Republicans in Congress say that the Petraeus report in September will be critical for their continued support, as though a few months rather than years can make the critical difference. Bush and the GOP have refused to understand that the issue has never been whether this or that tactic or strategy can salvage something worthwhile from this sorry mess. It is whether our country believes that remaining in Iraq for five to ten years with the concomitant expenditure of blood and treasure is worth it. Most Americans don’t think so now – and a great many of them never did.
If the old bromide that it is countries that fight wars not armies is true, it’s equally so that this war cannot be pursued indefinitely with the support of just one political party and its base. To delay making a drastic rather than cosmetic change in course now that will transition to what should be, primarily, a training and support mission combined with an orderly, phased withdrawal of major US combat forces in Iraq within a specific timeframe, is to put off the inevitable at a cost of yet more American lives. The only thing about the surge on which Bush is right is that it has brought a spike in US casualties; it has not and will not bring about a fundamental change for the better on the ground.
It is not good enough to insist that we must stay in Iraq because the presence of al-Qaida terrorists, whom we released in the aftermath of our invasion like some evil genie from the bottle, makes our departure in the foreseeable future impossible. Nor is it sufficient to devise doomsday scenarios of the bloodbath that will follow our disengagement. If the only reason to stay in Iraq is because things will get worse if we leave because we came in the first place, then maybe it’s a hard lesson we need to learn about the limits of military power – even of a superpower.
In the end, the future of Iraq must be charted by the Iraqis themselves. We can and should help them to make the best of it even as we plan, along with our allies and regional players such as Syria and Iran, for the worst should the violence worsen.
We blundered into Iraq in ignorance and hubris. We need now to commence preparations for a more dignified, if chastened, departure.
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