More about “The Surge”
I think the following comment on The Surge – Last Charge of the Neocons is quite good, and I don’t have much time to write anything new today, so this get’s the front-page today:
I have been to Iraq and I can tell you there are no experts. Some reporters or Congressmen drop in or take a “combat circulation” tour with a commander and feel free to make a pronouncement. Few really understand the complex nature of the conflict.
I can tell you that top military commanders “get it”. They know there have been so many bad choices that there not any good ones left.
I have some empathy with your instincts although I might be reading too much into your short comment. Here’s my take on understanding “Operation Iraqi Freedom”:
There is no victory. We can’t win the war and we can’t loose it. “Are we winning?” is the wrong question. If you had a chance to sit down with the generals in charge you’d hear much of the same.
The politics and culture of Iraq have evolved a bit more than ours. Right now there is a fierce battle to gather both political and military power. It’s not just Sunni and Shia or North and South. It’s tribal and clan and city. Many rivalries are based purely on personality cults. One Colonel summed it up well, “it’s like playing three dimensional chess”. Unfortunately we’re playing checkers. It’s in no one factions best interest to stop the power plays. It will continue. The US allows this by protecting the government. We are paying billions and loosing about 2 or 3 soldiers a day. The Iraqis aren’t in any hurry and, if you could sit down and talk with any one of the leaders, they’d tell you just that.
The theory behind the draw down is to put pressure on Iraqi leaders to reach agreements on sharing power, oil revenue and the nature of the federal system. No one benefits from a US withdrawal and the inevitable de-evolution of Iraqi society. So the gamble here is that the leadership will step up and find a political solution that will marginalize the radical minority.
The arguement behind the surge is to secure more of Baghdad and make the transition to Iraqi rule less uncertain. That means protect Sunni neighborhoods and cleanse the hopelessly corrupt National Police force from militia influence. That’s a noble goal but there’s no evidence that another 30,000 troops will be able to accomplish more than the 40,000 who are already there. It also gives time for leaders to position themselves—not to mention giving “insurgents” 30,000 more targets.
There are regional powers at play as well—Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria. Any one of which can interfere with either plan.
My prediction? The surge will accomplish little. We’ll start withdrawal by the end of the year. The Iraqi government will undergo upheaveal and radical change. Those in power now are transition players. There will be an inevitable battle between the Shia powers of Abdul Aziz Hakim (The Supreme Council for the Islamic Republic of Iraq and the Badr Brigade) and the Sadr movement (Moktada and the Mehdi Army). The best hope is a relative benign dictator that allows some influence from an elected Parliament. Putin comes to mind. The worse is civil war and the displacement of millions of Iraqis.
The irony is that ten years from now our allies will be the Sunni’s and Baathists’ that are now killing American soldiers. The US and Saudi’s will use them as a buffer between Shia Persia and the Sunni Arab world.
Finally I can tell you that the brave Americans in uniform are doing an incredible job. There is much good being done that you don’t see. There are also many brave Iraqis who are fighting for their country and taking enormous risks. When a policeman goes to work he puts his entire family at risk. There’s not many of us who would do that. It’s in this that our effort in Iraq may be salvaged–by the small acts of kindness that will remain in the memories of Iraqis in the decades to come.
They are just like us. They want to provide for their families and leave the world a little better for their children. They are, for the most part, wonderful, tough people who are doing what they need to do to adapt to a very uncertain and violent world.
Mike
ABCNEWS
