harikari.com

Yesterday Clinton won Ohio by a big margin, the Texas Primary by a close margin and either lost or was very close in the Texas Caucus.  She also won the small state of Rhode Island by a big margin.  Obama won Vermont by a big margin.

So what does this “Clinton Comeback” mean?  If you are talking about math, then it doesn’t mean much at all.  According to The New York Times tally of pledged delegates, she picked up twelve and Obama still leads by 140:  1360 to 1220.  If you are talking about momentum, we’ll have to wait and see.

What I’ve heard from several media sources today is that it’s nearly impossible for Clinton to catch up in pledged delegates.  She’d have to win all of the remaining contests by something like 65-35 margins.  It’s also not likely that Obama will reach the total of 2025 pledged delegates to lock the nomination.

That brings us to the superdelegate question.  How will they vote?  How should they vote?  Well, right now Clinton leads 254 – 202 with 256 not yet choosing to vote.  As to how they should vote, well I agree with the argument that says they should end up supporting the candidate chosen by all the people that voted in all the caucuses and primaries (excluding the two all of the Democrats agreed to exclude:  Florida and Michigan.)  That would seem to favor Obama, and yes that is who I favor.  (If you are Washington State resident and you want to tell your superdelegates how you think they should vote, see below post.)

But this isn’t just a math problem complicated by what happens in the superdelegate backroom at the convention this summer.  It’s also a political problem.  If the Democrats want to win the November election, they need to have a candidate that can beat McCain. 

My gut tells me that Obama can beat McCain.  I think that his position on the war and on taxes is in line with what a clear majority of Americans think:  The war must end, and we must start collecting taxes to pay for it and start paying down the debt.  The majority of Americans also think we should find a way to extend healthcare to all Americans.  Obama’s plan would leave more people out than Clinton’s plan, but his plan is far better than McCain’s and probably less controversial for independents. 

Obama also has legions of supporters, and many of them are young and getting into politics for the first time in their lives.  They will be excited about an Obama candidacy and they will actively support his campaign for the presidency.  Obama is also very appealing to independent voters.  He will be able to win over many of them with his less combative style, and his inspiring rhetoric.

Is he capable of the job?  I think he is without a doubt capable of being a great president.

What about Hillary?  She too is capable of being a great president.  But my gut tells me that if Hillary gets the nomination, she will lose to McCain no matter what she does or how well she campaigns.  Why?  Well like it or not, a lot of young Obama supporters will be pissed off if Clinton loses the pledged delegate count and wins the nominatin because of the superdelegate vote.  If that happens they’ll see the presidential race as just “the same old same old” and quickly lose interest.  As result, the Democrats will not only lose the 2008 election, they will also miss out on enfranchising a whole new generation of voters.  I also think that because of Clinton’s past history and her combative style, more independents will choose McCain over Clinton.

Bottom line:  If Obama wins the nomination, I will be excited about casting my vote for him as president, and I will expect him to win.  If Clinton wins the nomination, I will cast my vote for her, but I won’t be very excited about it, and I won’t think she’ll win.