To Walk or Wait
The transit system in Seattle is pretty good, even without light rail, but what is one to do when they miss the bus? Should a person walk to their destination or simply wait for the next bus?A recent article in the NewScientist article addresses the topic:
Scott Kominers, a mathematician at Harvard University, and his colleagues derived a formula for the optimal time that you should wait for a tardy bus at each stop en route before giving up and walking on. “Many mathematicians probably ponder this on their way to work, but never get round to working it out,” he says.
The team found that the solution was surprisingly simple. When both options seem reasonably attractive, the formula advises you to choose the “lazy” option: wait at the first stop, no matter how frustrating.
The original research paper can be found here.
As one who uses the Seattle mass transit system on a daily basis for both regular and occasional travel, I have my own opinions on the subject.
1. No matter how short your bus ride may be according to the schedule, if punctuality is important you should plan to be at the stop 15 minutes early to catch the bus prior to the bus that would get you there 15 minutes early. Schedule this time for each leg of your trip. For instance, if you have to be in Redmond by 2 and the bus that will get you there by 1:45 leaves Montlake at 1:25, plan enough time to be at the Montlake stop 15 minutes before the scheduled arrival of the bus that comes prior to that 1:25 bus. If you’re traveling to Montlake from Capitol Hill, arrive at the bus stop 15 minutes prior to the bus that would get you to Montlake 15 minutes before the bus that is scheduled to arrive prior to the bus that would get you to Redmond 15 minutes before you’re supposed to be there. This is a difficult process, but you will fail sooner or later if you don’t assume every bus you need to catch is going to be 15 minutes early and the next one is going to be 15 minutes late.
2. If any portion of your trip passes through Rainier Valley, the Central District, Downtown, or Capitol Hill, simply plan to be at your bus stop with enough time to walk to your final destination or at least to the first bus stop outside of those neighborhoods. You will do best to plan on being at your final destination one hour (or so, depending on the distance) before you need to be. Bring a little cash and an iPod so you can whittle away the wait at the Starbucks nearest your appointment while reading every last article in the Stranger. If you still have extra time, there are personals and plenty of ads. If you enjoy proofreading angry high school essays, pick up a copy of The Seattle Sinner or the Seattle Gay News. Bring a hi-liter.
3. If your bus comes any less frequently than every 30 minutes or if you are riding at night, just start walking. Once your bus passes you between stops, if it finally does, and you can’t stand to walk any further, call a cab.
This has been Tony’s official bus rider’s guide to Metro KC. Thank you for listening.